Burnsville, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

147
FXUS63 KMPX 150753
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
253 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple chances for showers and storms through the next few
  days.

- A few periods of heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible.

- A trend towards cooler and drier weather later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

GOES19 infrared satellite imagery shows what is left our weak storms
in southeastern Minnesota as a complex of stronger storms moves
through western South Dakota and Nebraska. What is left of the
lingering showers has outrun the instability and will continue to
diminish over the next couple hours with dry conditions until more
showers and storms arrive later this afternoon and evening. A pseudo-
stationary boundary will enter the region today and will be the
locus of what will be multiple rounds of showers and storms over the
weekend, with the location of the boundary going to be a key focal
point of the forecast in terms of where the heaviest rainfall will
end up.

Heat and humidity will build today ahead of a plume of lower
mid level warm air and moisture that will arrive with the boundary
later today, with heat indices peaking in the mid to upper 90s this
afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon. We may see a brief hour or
two of heat indices exceeding heat advisory criteria, however the
duration for now looks to be short enough such that an advisory may
not be needed, especially if cloud cover and convective debris end
up knocking down the high temperatures just a bit. Ensemble guidance
shows a fairly high likelihood of highs in the upper 80s for a large
portion of the MPX CWA, with dew points increasing into the mid 70s
within the primary warm air advection zone south of the boundary.
Right now, there is still not a clear consensus within the suite of
guidance to pinpoint the location of the boundary, however for now
it looks to favor near or north of the Twin Cities which would place
most of the CWA within the WAA zone. Potential for severe weather
will largely be confined to the immediate area near the boundary as
shear will be locally maximized, however a lower-mid level cap as
well as high PWATs are making this event seem more like a flooding
threat than a large scale severe weather threat. CFSR climatology
from the ECMWF shows a plume of 99th or higher percentile PWATs over
a large portion of the area beginning this evening and continuing
through Tuesday morning, with both the CFSR ECMWF and NAEFS showing
PWATS in excess of 2 inches for the next few nights. There is high
confidence in significant moisture being present with the highest
overall areal coverage in terms of the percentiles being Sunday
night into Monday morning after a few days of consistent low level
WAA and moisture advection take place. Stay tuned for further
details including the location of the boundary and most likely area
for localized flooding as we see more CAMs come into play that will
capture the full event over the next 24-36 hours.

A pattern change looks to arrive mid to late week with the northern
ridge shifting eastwards and northerly flow aloft returning to the
northern plains, pushing the warmth and moisture towards the east as
it does. Flow aloft will tilt back towards the northwest towards the
end of the week, which should give us a good chance to not only
drying out but also seeing temperatures cool down into the 70s to
low 80s for highs as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Small area of -TSRA will impact KMSP, and could hold on for
KRNH, but it should miss the rest of the TAF sites. Could see
some storms across northern MN sag south and impact KAXN.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions. Did add a prob30 for -TSRA
Friday afternoon, and there is some indication that we could
have another round of storms early Saturday morning.

KMSP...
A small area of thunderstorms should be past KMSP by the start
of the TAF period. Then expect VFR conditions. Could see
additional storms Friday evening, and again early Saturday
morning. For now, just added a Prob30 for Friday evening, and
held off on a mention in the TAFs for early Saturday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA early. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SUN...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind shifting from S to W to
N, around 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JRB